@Ottoneu League 52: 2013 Season Values

This morning @chadyoung updated his fantasy baseball values using a combination of the projections that have recently been released into the public – you can find a link to his article and spreadsheet here.  We conducted our auction last weekend (I’ve previously written about the results here), and I thought it would be interesting to look at the our league’s teams against the backdrop of Chad’s ottoneu values.

The full spreadsheet of our league’s teams (there are only 11 in this spreadsheet because our 2012 league champion is in the middle of a complete teardown and rebuild and won’t compete in 2012 – at least, not as his roster is currently constructed) is located here, where you can look at the actual players for each team.   As you all know, I am very suspect of projection systems for relief pitchers (see here and here), so due to Ottoneu’s 1500 innings limit, I’ve analyzed each team’s starting lineup plus top 6 SPs.  A summary of the results:

Team Lineup SP1-SP6 TOTAL
Chiefs  $281.29  $  96.47  $377.76
Shoeless  $269.81  $  60.02  $329.83
Enrico  $192.11  $127.36  $319.48
Durham  $259.10  $  51.18  $310.29
Knights  $175.81  $112.29  $288.11
FMW  $181.51  $  55.10  $236.61
MoPain  $178.72  $  56.44  $235.16
Syndicate  $132.86  $101.00  $233.86
WGW  $188.43  $  38.67  $227.09
WAR  $139.16  $  81.34  $220.51
Crying  $131.24  $  83.40  $214.64

The league basically breaks down in a 1-4-6 format – Chiefs with a clear advantage based on these projections, the next four teams roughly equivalent, and the final 6 teams roughly equivalent.  A few comments on the rosters:

(1)  Chiefs are led by Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Yadier Molina, but pads his lead with huge $$$ production from Martin Prado ($31), Aaron Hill ($19), Josh Willingham ($19) and Nelson Cruz ($17).  While the stars are as close to locks as one gets in fantasy baseball, those next four in my mind come with serious questions – Hill, Willingham and Prado are coming off career years and Nelson Cruz is unlikely to play 150 games at a high level.

(2)  Shoeless Joe’s project a $42 season from Adrian Gonzalez and a $24 year from Tim Lincecum, neither of which I would necessarily bet on – on the other hand, a $12 project for Jered Weaver seems lowballed unless you assume he isn’t healthy.

(3)  WGW clocks in with some work to do in the rotation, though he has hitched his wagon to youth on the mound — Matt Moore, Brandon Morrow, Jordan Zimmerman and Matt Harvey – if they all begin realizing their upside that number will look low in retrospect

(4)  As for my team, it finishes about where I expected – Chad’s spreadsheet values Peter Bourjos and Denard Span negatively (which I’m clearly not counting on) and is skeptical of Brett Anderson (with good reason).

I expect most owners not named Chicago Chiefs will disagree strongly with the results of the analysis – I merely present and don’t endorse the results.  I will try to come back to these projections as the year progresses.

** Please note that I didn’t look through each team’s roster in exhausting detail, so it’s possible that I’ve not perfectly optimized each lineup

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About Bill Porter

Bill is an aspiring sportswriter (attorney by day) born in Washington DC, raised in New York, and currently living in San Francisco with his wife Kirsten and two spazzy labs, Fletch and Bear. Follow me on Twitter at @wfporter1972
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