@Ottoneu Arbitration Results

At long last, the first stage of the Ottoneu offseason is complete.  Yesterday constituted the Ottoneu arbitration deadline, where teams finalized allocation of their $25 to throw at other teams.   The extra arbitration dollars serve a few purposes — (1) helping minimize the advantage savvy owners may have by collecting underpriced assets, (2) punishing owners that appear to have the best teams lined up for 2014, or perhaps (3) merely punishing quality owners.

Teams have $25 to spread around the rest of the league, but can only allocate $3 to any team (and must spend at least $1 on each team).   I received a total of $29, spread across 12 players:2014 Arbitration Results (Enrico Palazzo) (Dollars Received) (1280x546) (2)

Quite honestly, the results stunned me — in a positive way.  Coming into the arbitration period, I had a number of players priced to attract $$, but none more than Yu Darvish ($8) and Manny Machado ($10).   Pre-arbitration, Cano sat at $44, Strasburg $36, Hamels $32 and Posey $28, while Lowrie and Corbin were $8, and Alex Gordon carred at $10 salary.

Yu Darvish finished 6th among SP with 1141 points while leading the league in strikeouts. Machado didn’t produce at quite an elite level, but managed to put up nearly 800 points as a 20-year-old 3B.  When Machado went down with a knee injury, I figured that some of the dollars would flow over to Darvish.  Honestly, I never considered that Strasburg, Cano, Posey or Hamels would attract arbitration dollars — each are priced decently given their elite level of production, but none carry a huge discount that I figured owners would be looking to pile cash on top of.  

Instead, Machado and Darvish got $8 each, bringing their price to $18 and $16, respectively.   Looking across Ottoneu LWTS leagues, Machado’s $18 is right around average, while Darvish still has significant excess value against a $32 average across all the leagues.

Looking past Machado and Darvish, 9 of my players received $1 allocations, including Robinson Cano ($44) and Stephen Strasburg ($36) on the high end of the price spectrum, and Patrick Corbin and Jed Lowrie (both $8) on the other side.  I don’t really understand any of these allocations.  Adding a mere $1 to pretty much any player makes little sense to me — to think that I would view a $44 Cano differently than a $45 Cano implies a level of precision that doesn’t exist in fantasy baseball — keeping, cutting or trading him will be the same decision regardless of $1 either way. Even looking at the prospects, adding $1 to Oscar Taveras or Carlos Correa doesn’t change their asset value in my view one bit.  Given the prices of Darvish/Machado, the arbitration impact of the $9 could have been painful (ie, if I were now holding a $27 Darvish instead of $18, his value to me and the open market significantly changes), but instead is largely irrelevant.

Ultimately, I had budgeted my 2014 roster plan to include an extra $33 divided in some manner between Darvish and Machado — so receiving $29 was a $4 benefit, and the $13 allocated to players where the price difference doesn’t matter is an added bonus.

Next Post:  A look at my $25 Arbitration allocations.


About Bill Porter

Bill is an aspiring sportswriter (attorney by day) born in Washington DC, raised in New York, and currently living in San Francisco with his wife Kirsten and two spazzy labs, Fletch and Bear. Follow me on Twitter at @wfporter1972
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4 Responses to @Ottoneu Arbitration Results

  1. Larry says:

    Its just a different strategy. Your opponents just want you to add as much salary as possible to your team for 2014 and the future. You wont cut Taveras because of 1 extra $, so its successful.

    • Bill Porter says:

      I wouldn’t have cut Yu Darvish or Manny Machado at 27 either, and extra money on those guys would have impacted their asset value much more significantly than $1 on Jed Lowrie…

      • Larry says:

        Well Sure, Jed Lowrie is a waste of a vote, most others seem reasonable. Machado at 27 is borderline, and then if he doesn’t recover as well, you’d cut him next year and all those arb $ will be gone. whereas if they are spread around, you are more likely to carry them ahead into the future

  2. k_lof says:

    My goal in allocating my arb dollars was to push players who were at, say, 70% of their value to 90% of their value. I avoided pushing expensive players even higher since that owner might then decide to cut and wouldn’t have to keep those dollars. Ultimately the goal is to saddle that owner with as many more dollars for as long as possible. I was confused by a fellow owner who allocated $1 to my $5 A.J. Burnett since either Burnett retires and I don’t have the burden of that extra dollar or I take it on for maybe one more year before Burnett retires. Yes Burnett is undervalued based on his recent production the last two years, but to me it would have made more sense to push my $7 Bogaerts, $4 Baez, or $5 Yelich since there is little chance I would be cutting them and I would then have those dollars for several years.

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